Locks
NFL (0.5 unit) NY Giants +11 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110): 7:15 p.m. CT on ESPN
It’s extremely difficult to face Tom Brady in a rebound point, but there are just too many factors that point me towards the Giants in this game.
Let’s start with the trends, which here are strongly in favor of New York. The Giants are simply excellent as an underdog on the road: 20-6 ATS overall, 9-2 ATS with Joe Judge as coach and 13-5 ATS with Daniel Jones at post. quarterback. Plus, it looks like Brady in his old age would just prefer to get the early bird special and go to bed, as he’s 0-11 ATS in his last 11 prime-time games.
The Giants are also recovering, with Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney returning for this game. They will face a Bucs defense that has already struggled to stop mediocre infractions over the past two weeks and is now lacking in key player Vita Vea. I love how the Giants’ defense has played out recently, allowing just 13 PPGs in the past 3 weeks, and they should be able to keep this one in such a large number.
NBA (0.5 units) Parlay Moneyline with 2 teams (+170)
Minnesota Timberwolves -150 @ New Orleans Pelicans: 7:00 p.m. CT on Bally Sports North
Ok Timberwolves, I’m ready to get hurt again. Four impressive games in a row make me believe Minnesota has figured things out on both ends of the field. Wolves are 5-1 ATS after a dismal streak and find themselves in their only profitable role of the season: road favorites where they are 4-1 ATS. But I’m only asking them to win this game, because I think the gap is going a bit too high for my comfort level.
Minnesota played one of their worst games of the year the last time they saw the Pelicans, so they should be motivated to atone for that performance. It’s been lousy for New Orleans since then, and they now have the second-worst winning margin in the NBA at -8.8 PPG. Wolves should be able to take that new confidence on the road tonight and secure the straight win over a bad team.
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls -160: 7:00 p.m. CT on NBC Sports-Chicago
To close this bet, I’m just asking a good home team to beat a bad team on the road. Indiana is now only 2-9 down the road but they tend to stay close so I’m only looking for a straight result here. The Bulls are 6-2 at home this season and play basketball with impressive balance. They are in the top 10 in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, in addition to drawing the lights from the depths.
Chicago’s small ball approach should be an advantage against a Pacers team that struggled against teams with good backcourt. Indiana just struck me as a mediocre team at best this season, with a defense prone to major errors. The Pacers are yet to win a conference road game, and I see that continuing here tonight.
NCAA Basketball (1 unit) Ohio State vs. Seton Hall -1.5 (-110): 5:00 p.m. CT on FS1
These teams are going in opposite directions right now, and a rising team from Seton Hall should be able to take advantage of that.
Ohio State just isn’t the best version of themselves right now, with seriously missing injured stars Justice Sueing and Seth Towns. They have mounted forward EJ Liddell this season, but he should be somewhat neutralized by a large frontcourt for Seton Hall. And the Pirates are feeling right right now, especially after knocking out an even better Big 10 team in Michigan last week. Their star goaltenders are all very experienced, get the go-ahead from anywhere and are also the main factor in Hall’s ranking of 3rd nationally in terms of defensive efficiency.
There’s a reason the unranked team is preferred over the ranked team on neutral ground here. I believe a lot in this team of Pirates and I think they capitalize against a weakened and downcast opponent.
NCAA Basketball (1 unit) Bellarmine vs. UCLA -19 (-110): 7:00 p.m. CT on ESPN +
There appears to be a neutral handover on the field in this game being played in Las Vegas. But it’s a lot more of a home game for UCLA than it is for Bellarmine, and the Bruins have been hugely impressive.
UCLA have so far crushed their non-conference opponents, winning all three games by an average margin of 31 points. All of these games have been played at home, so it’s a change for the Bruins, but they’re just too talented not to blow that cupcake opponent up. Thank Bellarmine for planning a brutal roster as they’ve faced Purdue and Gonzaga before this season. But they lost those games by an average margin of 35.5 points, failed to show an ability to consistently score against anyone and are expected to suffer another beat.
I just don’t get the line here, and I see the Bruins running away with this game, so I’ll be happy to put the big number with them.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 unit) TCU vs. Santa Clara +3.5 (-110): 9:30 p.m. CT on CBSSN
I’m extremely high on Santa Clara this season because the Broncos started the year on fire. TCU has some metrics that inflate its profile too much, and I think they might get in trouble here against real competition.
The Horned Frogs are 6th nationally in defensive efficiency, an impressive number until you factor in the cupcake routine they’ve faced. It’s a good thing TCU can play on defense as their shooting percentage against that same cupcake schedule is 269th in the country. They will have their defense tested tonight against a team from Santa Clara which is 9th in offensive efficiency. The Broncos also faced a much tougher schedule, but are still 4-0 ATS while winning by an average margin of 18.8 points.
This neutral venue tournament in California is becoming more of a family atmosphere for Santa Clara, and with the way they’ve started the season, I’ll gladly take the points here.
Degenerate
No degenerate today.
Tiny Nick has 455-350 ATS (+87.1 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day, he will offer his locks and his degenerate choices. Locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun choices but riskier ones.
